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		<title>The global freight recession will continue in 2024: CNBC Supply Chain Survey</title>
		<link>https://eisas.com.eg/the-global-freight-recession-will-continue-in-2024-cnbc-supply-chain-survey/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=the-global-freight-recession-will-continue-in-2024-cnbc-supply-chain-survey</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[ei-ad-sas-ac]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Dec 2023 12:01:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Shipping News]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://eisas.com.eg/?p=13711</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The global shipping industry has been mired in a freight recession this year and the challenging economic conditions will continue into 2024, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey. High inventories and a pullback in consumer spending are reasons behind the bearish outlook. The CNBC Supply Chain Survey was conducted October 21-October 31 among [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The global shipping industry has been mired in a freight recession this year and the challenging economic conditions will continue into 2024, according to a new CNBC Supply Chain Survey. High inventories and a pullback in consumer spending are reasons behind the bearish outlook.</p>
<p>The CNBC Supply Chain Survey was conducted October 21-October 31 among logistics executives who manage freight manufacturing orders and transportation, including those at C.H. Robinson, SEKO Logistics, DHL Global Forwarding Americas, Kuehne + Nagel, OL USA and ITS Logistics. These companies have insight into the orders shippers place into manufacturing companies around the world because they pick up the product from the ports as well as distribute products from warehouses to retailers.</p>
<p>This part of the trade pipe gives investors a three-to-four-month advance insight into retail consumer expectations based on the number of orders placed and the amount of product they have truckers move from the warehouses to the stores. It also provides a read on freight rates and what kind of freight volumes will be moved by truck and by rail — two key revenue drivers for companies in the shipping sector.</p>
<p>Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA, who participated in and reviewed the survey, tells CNBC the results indicate a freight market that will have little to no growth during the first half of 2024, which means stable to downward pricing, and hopes that during the second half of 2024 volume increases.</p>
<p>“Without more freight moving, 2024, and potentially 2025, will continue to see soft pricing as capacity outstrips demand,” he said.</p>
<p><strong>Freight trucking will remain soft</strong></p>
<p>Trucking companies get paid per load, and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/06/across-thousands-of-retailers-holiday-spending-outlook-is-cautious.html">low expectations for orders</a> imply potentially lower revenue this holiday season. Logistics executives were split on LTL (less-than-truckload) freight rates for the first quarter, with half looking for a 5% bump and the other half expecting rates to be unchanged to down as much as 15%.</p>
<p>The majority believe rates for full truck loads will be unchanged or down, while 33% expect prices to be up marginally at 5%.</p>
<h4>In the first quarter of 2024, LTL (parcel) trucking rates will be:</h4>
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<p>“We expect retail peak season for trucking to be sluggish,” said Noah Hoffman, vice president for C.H. Robinson North American Surface Transportation.</p>
<p>The freight recession has been hard for the industry and for those companies that were not diversified enough to withstand downturns, leading companies like Jeff Bezos-backed trucking startup Convoy to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/02/freight-recession-is-at-a-new-tipping-point-says-ubers-shipping-ceo.html">shut down</a>. According to Tank Transport, rising fuel costs and falling freight rates caused a total of 31,278 trucking companies to either close or shifted their services to larger fleets.</p>
<p>Uber Freight’s CEO recently told CNBC that there will be a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/02/freight-recession-is-at-a-new-tipping-point-says-ubers-shipping-ceo.html">“new tipping point”</a> in the freight industry shakeout with less diversified business models unable operate on a cost-effective basis.</p>
<h4>In the first quarter of 2024, full freight rates will be:</h4>
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<p>“No one is projecting confidence about a surge in demand during peak season or into next year,” said Tim Robertson, CEO DHL Global Forwarding Americas. He said the CNBC survey results underscore the overall climate of uncertainty that is defining the market right now. Mixed expectations for rates and volumes, and the fact that orders for product categories such as household goods are dropping for some respondents and increasing for others, “tells me companies are making different bets with their inventory strategies,” Robertson said.</p>
<h4>How do truck visits from the warehouse to big box retailers for the holidays compare to last year?</h4>
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<p>The survey finds that there is a similarly muted outlook for orders surrounding Lunar New Year, which falls on February 10, with a majority of respondents (67%) not seeing an order increase. As a result of China shutting down the majority of manufacturing operations during the Lunar New Year, shippers start to place their orders now to get their products in before any closures or staffing slowdowns to avoid delays. The products that normally come in during this time are spring and summer items.</p>
<h4>In the first half of 2024, freight volumes will be:</h4>
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<p>A slightly better second half 2024 outlook</p>
<p>The survey shows expectations for a slight turnaround in freight volume in the second half of 2024.</p>
<p>Half of respondents expect a 5% increase; 33% expect a 10% increase; and among the 17% that were the most optimistic, a 15% increase is anticipated.</p>
<p>“With a lot of uncertainty around consumer demand, interest rates and the global economy, most people do not have a positive outlook on freight volumes in the first half of next year, but we could certainly see a rebound in the second half of next year,” said Brian Bourke, global chief commercial officer at SEKO Logistics. </p>
<h4>In the second half of 2024, freight volumes will be:</h4>
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					<img loading="lazy" width="677" height="419" src="https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/news4-5.jpg" alt="" decoding="async" srcset="https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/news4-5.jpg 677w, https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/news4-5-300x186.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 677px) 100vw, 677px" />																													</figure>
<p>In addition to the quantity of freight moved, logistics companies on the water, road, and air generate revenue based on the rates they can charge.</p>
<p>The majority of respondents believe ocean freight prices for the first and second quarters will be unchanged or down — after 2023 in which rates cratered by as much as 50%. Looking at air freight, the majority anticipate rates to be unchanged to down anywhere from 10% to 20%. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/06/fedex-suggests-pilots-to-fly-for-american-airlines-as-cargo-demand-slows.html">FedEx recently told pilots</a> to look for additional work with American Airlines as cargo demand slows.</p>
<p>The low freight prices coupled with diminished cargo volumes were among the reasons behind global shipping bellwether Maersk’s recent announcement of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/03/shipping-giant-maersk-announces-10000-job-cuts-warns-of-volatility.html">10,000 layoffs</a>. “Our industry is facing a new normal with subdued demand, prices back in line with historical levels and inflationary pressure on our cost base,” CEO Vincent Clerc said in a statement last Friday regarding its results and the job cuts, and he added that overcapacity in most regions had driven down prices.</p>
<p>“Unfortunately, we are going to see significant challenges in volumes, and this will continue to cause more providers to exit the market or implement significant layoffs,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of drayage and intermodal at ITS Logistics. “This is not 2008-2009 by any means but it sure feels like it.”</p>
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		<title>Maersk and MSC’s dissolution of 2M shifts up another gear</title>
		<link>https://eisas.com.eg/maersk-and-mscs-dissolution-of-2m-shifts-up-another-gear/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=maersk-and-mscs-dissolution-of-2m-shifts-up-another-gear</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[ei-ad-sas-ac]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jul 2023 00:22:55 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Shipping News]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://eisas.com.eg/?p=4590</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The carriers, who earlier this year announced that they would end their co-operation in the 2M consortium, have begun unraveling their jointly operated services, seemingly with a minimum of fuss. This week Alphaliner reported: “The 2M-partners [are] increasingly moving away from services run with mixed fleets of vessels from both carriers in favor of joint [&#8230;]]]></description>
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									<p>The carriers, who earlier this year announced that they would end their co-operation in the 2M consortium, have begun unraveling their jointly operated services, seemingly with a minimum of fuss.</p><p>This week Alphaliner reported: “The 2M-partners [are] increasingly moving away from services run with mixed fleets of vessels from both carriers in favor of joint loops that are operated by only one of the two partners.”</p><p>The 2M partners had three services operating between Europe and the US East Coast, TA and NEUATL services, numbered one to three. But the major changes will come in the TA/NEUATL 3 which operates from North Europe to the US Gulf.</p><p>The Maersk-chartered Northern Majestic, a 7,000 teu vessel was withdrawn from this service a week ago, with the NEUATL 3 now fully operated by MSC ships, however, the carrier will also withdraw the 9,408 teu MSC Desiree from the loop, which will be operated by seven ships of between 5,550 and 6,730 teu.</p><p>The rotation will be Antwerp, Rotterdam, Bremerhaven, Newark (New York), Charleston, Veracruz, Altamira, New Orleans, Mobile, Freeport (Bahamas), Charleston, Antwerp.</p><p>According to Alphaliner the TA2/NEUATL2 service saw a reduction in capacity in September following the withdrawal of the six vessels of between 6,800 and ,200 teu, which were replaced by six Maersk-operated ships of between 4,130 and 5,100 teu.</p><p>Alphaliner added: “Further to these two loops, the ‘TA1 / NEUATL1’ has always been a Maersk-operated service, since the Danish carrier deploys US-flagged ships of 4,820 teu. Maersk’s 2M partner MSC is a co-loader on this loop.”</p><p>On the consortium’s Atlantic services’ the analyst said that the TA6/Medgulf has yet to see a redeployment of tonnage and as such remains with a mixed fleet of ships, five MSC vessels of between 7,470 – 9,580 teu and a further four Maersk units of between 6,540 – 7,250 teu.</p><p>Canadian services were already outside of the 2M scope, Alphaliner said, with Maersk in partnership with CMA CGM and MSC operating with Hapag-Lloyd and OOCL to Canada’s Atlantic coast and the St Lawrence.</p><p>On the Pacific the carriers have organized themselves with each operator providing all the tonnage for each loop.</p><p>Such an arrangement is not unusual, said Alphaliner: “This is however not unusual. The Ocean Alliance is organized between Asia and North Europe in a similar way, with whole loops operated by one alliance member which shares the capacity. Same for THE Alliance where ONE is operating the Japan- N Europe loop.”</p><p>Meanwhile, Maersk is planning to operate a US, Venezuela, Columbia, and Central America service with French carrier CMA CGM.</p><p>Operated as a vessel sharing agreement the carriers will deploy three ships of between 1,500-2,500 teu, two CMA CGM vessels and one Maersk, which will call at Port Everglades, Kingston, La Guaira, Puerto Cabello, Cartagena (Colombia), Puerto Cortes, Santo Tomas de Castilla (or Puerto Barrios), Port Everglades.</p><p> Further details on the service, including start date, have yet to be revealed, said Alphaliner.</p>								</div>
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		<title>Panama Canal Auction Sets Record $4M for Slot as Congestion Grows</title>
		<link>https://eisas.com.eg/panama-canal-auction-sets-record-4m-for-slot-as-congestion-grows/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=panama-canal-auction-sets-record-4m-for-slot-as-congestion-grows</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[ei-ad-sas-ac]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jul 2023 00:22:53 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Shipping News]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://eisas.com.eg/?p=4589</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Major shipping lines are scrambling and looking for ways to deal with the growing backlogs at the Panama Canal. The prospects of a growing wait reportedly prompted one company to bid a record $4 million for one of the open slots bringing their anticipated total transit costs to $4.5 million and still they have to [&#8230;]]]></description>
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									<p>Major shipping lines are scrambling and looking for ways to deal with the growing backlogs at the Panama Canal. The prospects of a growing wait reportedly prompted one company to bid a record $4 million for one of the open slots bringing their anticipated total transit costs to $4.5 million and still they have to wait another week to get their empty gas carrier on its way.</p><p>The worsening drought in Panama has drawn international attention as the Panama Canal Authority continues to reduce capacity in order to manage its dwindling water supply. After warning that it was scheduled to cut slots to 30 daily transits between the two locking systems as of November 1, the Panama Canal Authority surprised the industry on October 30 saying more drastic cuts were required. They immediately went to 25 daily slots and with a phased series of cuts, they will reach 18 slots on February 1, 2024.</p><p>The canal’s reporting system shows as of the end of the day today, November 9, the backlog has grown to a total of 109 ships, including 63 without reservations. The average wait for non-booked vessels has been going up steadily in November and currently stands at a five-day average for the past 28 days on the northbound transit to the Atlantic, and six days for the southbound transit. Panamax Plus vessels have the highest average wait reaching 11 days while one Neopanamax vessel is reported waiting 13 days for a northbound transit.</p><p>Owners are taking different approaches with some appearing content to wait while Bloomberg first reported that a new record price was paid at the daily auction for slots used by vessels without a reservation and they calculated that another vessel simply turned around and took a different course.</p><p>The Panama Canal Authority confirmed the reports of a record $4 million price paid for the slot in yesterday’s auction, November 8, and even still the first slot the vessel could secure was November 15. As per Bloomberg’s report, Japan’s Eneos Group is paying the record (officially $3.98 million) for their vessel the <em>Sunny Bright</em>, a 50,000 dwt LPG carrier that according to its AIS signal arrived at the Pacific anchorage on November 4. The day before the auction, Bloomberg reported that the <em>Sunny Bright</em> might be giving up and departing to follow an alternate route to the terminal in Houston, Texas.</p><p>While the one gas carrier paid for the privilege of a reservation, Bloomberg reports a second one without a reservation apparently gave up. The <em>Pyxis Pioneer</em>, a 54,000 dwt LPG carrier, they speculated was leaving after having also arrived at the Pacific anchorage on November 4. They proposed the vessel would round South America to get to Houston to load its next cargo.</p><p>The new record at the auction came just eight days after an earlier report of a record at the auction. Prices typically increase in the fall as more gas carriers are making the transit with a record of $2.6 million in November 2022. Typical auction prices were around or below $1 million although owners were paying well over $2 million this year. The October 30 auction saw the prices rise to a reported $2.85 million for a reservation.</p><p>Analysts have speculated that as the number of daily transits is lowered it is likely that more classes of ships will be either squeezed out or choose alternate routes. Already one cruise line, Royal Caribbean International canceled a program of 2024 trips that were to have been making the transit, while the larger containerships have been forced to transship portions of their cargo across the Isthmus by train to reduce their draft.</p><p>The Panama Canal Authority reports it is taking steps such as the use of water reutilization basins for the Neopanamax locks and cross-filling at the Panamax locks to conserve water. They elected to lower the number of daily transits while holding the draft restriction at a maximum of 44 feet at the Neopanamax locks and 39 feet at the Panamax locks.  The authority has warned the restrictions are likely to persist through 2024 noting that short-term weather forecasts show no improvement after October was the driest month in over 73 years of records.</p>								</div>
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		<title>What downturn? US imports still rising, highest since boom</title>
		<link>https://eisas.com.eg/what-downturn-us-imports-still-rising-highest-since-boom/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=what-downturn-us-imports-still-rising-highest-since-boom</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[ei-ad-sas-ac]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Jul 2023 13:01:34 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Shipping News]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://eisas.com.eg/?p=1</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[American consumers just keep on spending — and the volume of containerized imports keeps on rising. October import numbers released Tuesday by Descartes came in exceptionally strong. The U.S. imported 2,307,918 twenty-foot equivalent units of containerized goods last month, according to Descartes Systems Group (NASDAQ: DSGX), which obtains its data from customs filings. That’s up [&#8230;]]]></description>
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									<p>American consumers just keep on spending — and the volume of containerized imports keeps on rising. October import numbers released Tuesday by Descartes came in exceptionally strong.</p><p>The U.S. imported 2,307,918 twenty-foot equivalent units of containerized goods last month, according to Descartes Systems Group (NASDAQ: <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DSGX?p=DSGX&amp;.tsrc=fin-srch">DSGX</a>), which obtains its data from customs filings. That’s up 3.9% year on year and 4.7% compared to September. </p>								</div>
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									<p>(Chart: Descartes. Data: Descartes Datamyne)</p>								</div>
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									<p>Imports have surged 33% from their recent low in February. October’s inbound volumes were the highest since August 2022, back when volumes were still inflated by the one-off pandemic boom.</p><p>It was the third best October ever for the U.S. imports, with the exception of the boom-inflated months in 2020 and 2021.</p><p>China continued to be the top driver of inbound volumes. According to Descartes, America imported 886,842 TEUs of containerized goods from China in October, 38.4% of total imports and the highest volume from China since August 2022.</p>								</div>
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					<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="648" src="data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns%3D&#039;http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg&#039; viewBox%3D&#039;0 0 1600 648&#039;%2F%3E" class="attachment-full size-full wp-image-13695 ld-lazyload" alt="" itemprop="image" data-src="https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-2.jpg" data-srcset="https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-2.jpg 1600w, https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-2-300x122.jpg 300w, https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-2-1024x415.jpg 1024w, https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-2-1536x622.jpg 1536w" data-sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" data-aspect="2.4691358024691" />																													</figure>
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									<p>(Chart: FreightWaves based on data from Descartes Datamyne)</p>								</div>
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									<h3><strong>Volume up vs. pre-COVID years</strong></h3>
This year’s imports continue to outpace volumes in the years prior to the pandemic.

Descartes put October’s imports 11.5% above imports in October 2019, 2.5% higher than in October 2018 and 15% higher than in October 2017. (In 2018, importers brought in shipments early to avert the Trump administration tariffs, hiking fall 2018 volumes at the expense of fall 2019 volumes.)

Total imports in January through October of this year were up 3.4% versus the same period in 2019, 4.4% versus 2018 and 11.8% versus 2017.								</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-a67304b elementor-widget elementor-widget-ld_fancy_image" data-id="a67304b" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="ld_fancy_image.default">
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					<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="573" src="data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns%3D&#039;http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg&#039; viewBox%3D&#039;0 0 1600 573&#039;%2F%3E" class="attachment-full size-full wp-image-13696 ld-lazyload" alt="" itemprop="image" data-src="https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-3.jpg" data-srcset="https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-3.jpg 1600w, https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-3-300x107.jpg 300w, https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-3-1024x367.jpg 1024w, https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-3-1536x550.jpg 1536w" data-sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" data-aspect="2.7923211169284" />																													</figure>
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									<p>(Chart: FreightWaves based on data from Descartes Datamyne)</p>								</div>
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									<h3><strong>Trans-Pacific rates strengthen</strong></h3>
Meanwhile, trans-Pacific spot rates have strengthened recently and remain within the normal pre-COVID range.

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) assessment for spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles was $2,175 per forty-foot equivalent unit in the week ending Thursday, up 11% versus the prior week.

Current rates in this lane are 20% below the WCI assessment in 2018, when rates were inflated by the tariff effect, and 38% above 2019 levels, when rates were depressed because imports had been pulled forward by tariffs. The Shanghai-Los Angeles index is currently 33% above 2017 levels.								</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-08e90c4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-ld_fancy_image" data-id="08e90c4" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="ld_fancy_image.default">
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					<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1600" height="444" src="data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,%3Csvg xmlns%3D&#039;http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg&#039; viewBox%3D&#039;0 0 1600 444&#039;%2F%3E" class="attachment-full size-full wp-image-13697 ld-lazyload" alt="" itemprop="image" data-src="https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-4.jpg" data-srcset="https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-4.jpg 1600w, https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-4-300x83.jpg 300w, https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-4-1024x284.jpg 1024w, https://eisas.com.eg/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/news2-4-1536x426.jpg 1536w" data-sizes="(max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px" data-aspect="3.6036036036036" />																													</figure>
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					</div>
				</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-a78c1ae elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="a78c1ae" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
									<div style="mso-element: para-border-div; border: none #999999 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none #999999 0in; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 19pt; line-height: 150%; border: none; padding: 0in;" align="center"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Spot rate in USD per FEU. Blue line: 2023. Orange line: 2019. Purple line: 2018. Yellow line: 2017. (Chart: FreightWaves SONAR)</span></p></div>								</div>
				<div class="elementor-element elementor-element-420fb54 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor" data-id="420fb54" data-element_type="widget" data-widget_type="text-editor.default">
									<p>The WCI Shanghai-New York spot index was at $2,616 per FEU in the week ending Thursday, up 3% from the week before.</p><p>It was flat versus 2019 levels, down 24% from tariff-boosted 2018 levels and up 9% from the same time in 2017.</p>								</div>
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									<div style="mso-element: para-border-div; border: none #999999 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none #999999 0in; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in;"><p>Spot rate in USD per FEU. Blue line: 2023. Purple line: 2019. Yellow line: 2018. Pink line: 2017. (Chart: FreightWaves SONAR)</p></div>								</div>
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